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Analis menuturkan, keputusan final MSCI Juni 2027 sehingga volatilitas pasar saham masih bertahan.

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Diterbitkan 19 Oktober 2026, 11:10 WIB

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Prospek IHSG dan Strategi Investasi Ketika IHSG Lesu — Layar monitor menunjukkan pergerakan pasar saham di lantai Bursa Efek Indonesia menjelang aktivitas perdagangan, Jakarta pada Senin 9 Februari 2026. (BAY ISMOYO/AFP)

Liputan6.com, Jakarta - Senior Technical Analyst PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, Nafan Aji menuturkan, prospek Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) masih cenderung dan tertekan. Hal ini seiring pengumuman penyedia indeks global Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) telah meningkatkan ketidakpastian mengenai status pasar modal Indonesia.

Ia menuturkan, pada perdagangan 16 Oktober 2026, IHSG sempat mengalami trading halt setelah dibuka turun sekitar 8%, mencerminkan besarnya tekanan jual dan perubahan persepsi risiko investor. Namun, ia mengatakan, potensi penguatan masih ada.

"Peluang rebound tetap terbuka, tetapi akan sangat bergantung pada kemampuan pemerintah dan regulator memberikan respons yang kredibel, meredanya tekanan jual asing, stabilisasi rupiah, serta perbaikan sentimen global,” kata dia,ditulis Senin, (19/10/2026).

Nafan menuturkan, investor juga perlu mencermati konsultasi MSCI masih berlangsung dan keputusan final belum ditetapkan, sehingga volatilitas berpotensi bertahan selama proses evaluasi.

Lalu bagaimana strategi investasi untuk investor ritel?

Nafan menuturkan, untuk investor ritel, strategi yang lebih prudent adalah menjaga likuiditas, menghindari penggunaan utang atau margin trading secara agresif, dan tidak terburu-buru melakukan bottom fishing hanya karena harga saham telah turun signifikan.

“Akumulasi bertahap dapat dipertimbangkan pada emiten dengan fundamental kuat, arus kas sehat, tingkat utang terkendali, tata kelola yang baik, dan valuasi menarik, dengan tetap menerapkan diversifikasi serta batas risiko,”kata dia.

Sementara itu, bagi investor institusi, ia menilai perlu mengevaluasi eksposur terhadap risiko indeks, likuiditas portofolio, dan skenario arus keluar dana asing.

“Dengan demikian, rebound yang berkelanjutan akan lebih meyakinkan apabila didukung perbaikan tata kelola dan kembalinya kepercayaan investor, bukan sekadar aksi beli teknikal setelah koreksi tajam,” kata dia.

Sementara itu, Direktur PT Panin Asset Management, Rudiyanto mengimbau investor tetap tenang dan memastikan portofolio sudah terdiversifikasi dengan baik saat IHSG bergejolak.

Potensi Capital Outflow

Akhir Pekan IHSG Ditutup Menguat — Karyawan mengamati pergerakan harga saham di Profindo Sekuritas, Jakarta, Jumat (22/9/2023). (Liputan6.com/Angga Yuniar)

Selain, Nafan memprediksi risiko capital outflow masih cukup besar, terutama karena MSCI mempertahankan pembekuan sejumlah perubahan indeks terkait saham Indonesia, termasuk penambahan konstituen dan kenaikan Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF).

"Kebijakan ini dapat membatasi potensi aliran dana pasif yang masuk dan meningkatkan ketidakpastian bagi investor institusi,” kata dia.

Nafan menuturkan, jika proposal reklasifikasi berlanjut, saham-saham berkapitalisasi besar yang memiliki bobot signifikan dalam indeks MSCI, likuiditas tinggi, dan kepemilikan investor asing besar berpotensi menjadi perhatian utama dalam penyesuaian portofolio.

“Saham perbankan besar, telekomunikasi, serta emiten konglomerasi dan komoditas yang banyak dimiliki investor institusi perlu dicermati berdasarkan eksposur indeks dan struktur kepemilikannya masing-masing,” ujar Nafan.

Namun, ia melihat tekanan jual tidak akan merata di seluruh saham. Emiten dengan fundamental solid, arus kas sehat, likuiditas memadai, dan valuasi yang sudah terkoreksi berpotensi menunjukkan ketahanan relatif lebih baik. “Dalam jangka pendek, volatilitas diperkirakan tetap tinggi karena investor akan mencermati perkembangan konsultasi MSCI, respons regulator, serta pergerakan rupiah dan arus dana asing,” kata dia.