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Analis IPOT menilai rencana reklasifikasi MSCI berpotensi menekan pasar saham RI. Transparansi dan integritas perdagangan menjadi sorotan.

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IHSG Menguat — Layar yang menampilkan informasi pergerakan saham di gedung Bursa Efek Indonesia, Jakarta, Senin (8/6/2020). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menguat 1,34% ke level 5.014,08 pada pembukaan perdagangan sesi I, Senin (8/6). (Liputan6.com/Angga Yuniar)

Liputan6.com, Jakarta - Rencana reklasifikasi indeks Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) berpotensi menekan pasar modal Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Ketidakpastian kebijakan tersebut juga memunculkan risiko keluarnya dana asing, baik dari investor pasif maupun aktif.

Equity Analyst PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Imam Gunadi, menilai tekanan pasar dalam jangka pendek berpotensi berlanjut. Sementara itu, dampak dalam jangka menengah akan bergantung pada kemampuan regulator membuktikan efektivitas reformasi transparansi dan integritas pasar.

Estimasi potensi arus keluar dana asing sekitar US$ 4 miliar dari passive fund dan hingga US$ 15 miliar dari active fund. Namun, angka tersebut merupakan estimasi potensi, bukan kepastian arus keluar yang benar-benar terjadi.

Imam menjelaskan, dampaknya perlu dilihat berdasarkan karakter investor. Dana pasif mengikuti komposisi indeks, sedangkan dana aktif menentukan investasi berdasarkan mandat dan persepsi risiko.

"Jika penurunan kepercayaan meluas, tekanan juga berpotensi merembet ke rupiah dan pasar obligasi akibat pengurangan eksposur investor asing terhadap aset Indonesia," jelas dia, Jumat (16/10/2026).

Transparansi dan Integritas Pasar Jadi Sorotan

Pembukaan-Saham — Pengunjung tengah melintasi layar pergerakan saham di BEI, Jakarta, Senin (13/2). Pembukaan perdagangan bursa hari ini, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) tercatat menguat 0,57% atau 30,45 poin ke level 5.402,44. (Liputan6.com/Angga Yuniar)

Menurut Imam, persoalan mendasar yang perlu dibenahi adalah kredibilitas informasi dan integritas perdagangan. Investor perlu mengetahui pemilik manfaat akhir perusahaan, jumlah saham yang benar-benar tersedia untuk diperdagangkan, serta kewajaran pembentukan harga.

Ia menilai, reformasi transparansi dan rencana kenaikan minimum free float menjadi 15 persen belum cukup meyakinkan investor global tanpa bukti implementasi yang konsisten.

Sebelum keputusan final MSCI pada Juni 2027, ada empat indikator yang perlu dipenuhi regulator. Pertama, keterbukaan struktur kepemilikan dan beneficial ownership yang dapat diverifikasi. Kedua, peningkatan kualitas data free float. Ketiga, penurunan perdagangan tidak wajar melalui pengawasan dan penegakan hukum yang terukur. Keempat, perbaikan aksesibilitas pasar, likuiditas, dan kewajaran pembentukan harga.

Periode konsultasi MSCI dijadwalkan berlangsung hingga 30 April 2027, dengan keputusan final paling lambat 30 Juni 2027.

Karena itu, menurut Imam, regulator perlu menunjukkan bukti perbaikan sebelum tenggat tersebut. Komitmen saja tidak cukup tanpa implementasi yang terukur.

Pada akhirnya, kepercayaan investor global akan bergantung pada kemampuan Indonesia membangun pasar modal yang transparan, adil, dan layak menjadi tujuan investasi.