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Rupiah diprediksi bergerak di kisaran 17.850 per dolar AS–18.200 per dolar AS pekan ini. Harga minyak dan arus modal asing menjadi sorotan.

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FOTO: Akhir Tahun, Nilai Tukar Rupiah Ditutup Menguat — Karyawan menunjukkan uang rupiah dan dolar AS di Jakarta. Rupiah di angka 18.069 per dolar AS pada Senin (19/10/2026) pagi. (Liputan6.com/Johan Tallo)

Liputan6.com, Jakarta -Nilai tukar rupiah diperkirakan masih menghadapi tekanan pada pekan ini, Senin (19/10/2026). Pengamat Ekonomi, Mata Uang, dan Komoditas Ibrahim Assuaibi memproyeksikan rupiah bergerak dalam rentang 17.850 per dolar AS hingga 18.200 per dolar AS. Tekanan berasal dari kombinasi faktor domestik, kebutuhan valuta asing, serta kenaikan harga minyak dunia.

Pada perdagangan Senin pagi, rupiah berada di level 18.069 per dolar AS. Sementara itu, berdasarkan data Bloomberg, nilai tukar rupiah tercatat 18.027 per dolar AS.

Ibrahim menilai pelemahan rupiah masih berpotensi berlanjut meskipun Bank Indonesia (BI) dan pemerintah telah melakukan intervensi di pasar keuangan.

Salah satu faktor yang disorot adalah perkembangan pasar modal Indonesia setelah penyedia indeks global MSCI mengambil langkah yang dinilai dapat memengaruhi persepsi investor asing.

"Kondisi tersebut berpotensi menekan arus modal asing dan menambah tekanan terhadap rupiah," kata dia, Senin (19/10/2026).

Selain itu, harga minyak mentah yang tinggi meningkatkan kebutuhan dolar AS untuk membayar impor energi. Tekanan juga berasal dari kewajiban pembayaran utang yang jatuh tempo serta pembagian dividen oleh perusahaan kepada investor.

“Walaupun BI melakukan intervensi, ya Menteri Keuangan pun juga terus melakukan intervensi di pasar juga,” kata Ibrahim.

Harga Minyak dan Defisit Anggaran Jadi Perhatian

Ketegangan Kawasan Timur Tengah Ancam Krisis Energi Global — Situasi ini memicu lonjakan harga minyak di atas USD 100 per barel, serta mengancam stabilitas ekonomi dunia dan inflasi bahan bakar. Tampak dalam foto, para pekerja melakukan perawatan pipa di stasiun degasifikasi di ladang minyak Zubair, yang operasinya telah dikurangi karena perang Timur Tengah yang dipicu oleh serangan AS dan Israel terhadap Iran, dekat Basra, Irak, Sabtu, 28 Maret 2026. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Ibrahim juga menyoroti risiko kenaikan harga minyak dunia terhadap kondisi fiskal Indonesia. Ia memperkirakan harga minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) berpotensi bergerak di kisaran US$ 94,20–US$ 104,80 per barel pada pekan ini, dengan peluang kembali berada di atas US$ 100 per barel.

Menurut dia, kenaikan harga minyak dapat menambah beban impor energi dan menekan anggaran negara. Karena itu, pemerintah dinilai perlu mempertimbangkan kebijakan yang memprioritaskan kebutuhan energi.

Ibrahim turut mengusulkan evaluasi pembiayaan sejumlah program pemerintah, agar anggaran dapat lebih difokuskan pada kebutuhan impor energi.

Ia juga memperkirakan rupiah berpotensi menyentuh Rp 18.500 per dolar AS pada akhir tahun apabila tekanan domestik dan global terus berlanjut.

Proyeksi tersebut tetap bergantung pada perkembangan pasar, kebijakan pemerintah, serta dinamika geopolitik.

Kenaikan harga minyak dan kebutuhan dolar AS menjadi sejumlah faktor yang perlu dicermati karena dapat memengaruhi stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah.

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