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Bos investasi Bitwise menilai Bitcoin berpeluang diuntungkan, baik jika AI memicu lonjakan ekonomi maupun jika gelembungnya pecah.

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Liputan6.com, Jakarta - Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Bitwise, Matt Hougan, menilai Bitcoin berpotensi diuntungkan dalam berbagai skenario ekonomi global, baik ketika kecerdasan buatan (AI) mendorong lonjakan produktivitas maupun saat investasi AI mengalami kehancuran.

Dalam memo berjudul Choose Your Own Macro Adventure, mengutip CoinMarketCap, Jumat (16/10/2026), Hougan menggambarkan beragam kemungkinan masa depan ekonomi, mulai dari AI yang melipatgandakan produk domestik bruto (PDB) hingga kekhawatiran teknologi tersebut mengancam kelangsungan manusia.

Menurut Hougan, jika AI membuat pekerjaan berbasis kecerdasan semakin murah, nilai aset akan bergeser ke sesuatu yang sulit direplikasi, seperti tanah di tepi pantai, emas, dan Bitcoin.

Sementara itu, jika gelembung investasi AI pecah, ekonomi berisiko mengalami resesi seperti krisis keuangan 2008. Bitcoin kemungkinan ikut terkoreksi bersama aset berisiko lainnya pada tahap awal.

Namun, Hougan memperkirakan pemerintah hampir pasti memberikan bantuan untuk menyelamatkan kondisi tersebut.

“Lingkungan seperti inilah yang memang menjadi alasan Bitcoin diciptakan,” tulisnya.

Risiko Tetap Ada, Bitcoin Tak Selalu Mulus

Dalam skenario ketiga, ekonomi global diperkirakan tumbuh sekitar 3 persen dengan suku bunga di kisaran 4 persen. Hougan menilai Bitcoin tetap berpeluang menguat berkat arus dana ETF, adopsi penasihat keuangan, serta alokasi investasi perusahaan dan negara di tengah peningkatan utang pemerintah.

“Bitcoin wins by showing up,” tulisnya, yang berarti Bitcoin berpeluang diuntungkan dengan terus hadir sebagai pilihan investasi.

Meski optimistis, Hougan mengingatkan bahwa perjalanan Bitcoin tidak selalu mulus. Ia mencontohkan kepanikan pasar pada Maret 2020 akibat pandemi COVID-19, ketika harga Bitcoin anjlok 50 persen dalam hitungan hari sebelum kemudian naik sekitar 20 kali lipat.

Risiko lain mencakup kemungkinan tindakan keras pemerintah secara global dan ancaman komputasi kuantum terhadap dompet Bitcoin lama.

Hougan menyimpulkan bahwa persoalan makroekonomi mungkin tidak sepenting yang diperkirakan banyak orang bagi prospek Bitcoin.

Namun, pembaca perlu mempertimbangkan bahwa Bitwise mengelola ETF Bitcoin spot sehingga memiliki kepentingan komersial terhadap permintaan Bitcoin. Saat artikel sumber ditulis, Bitcoin diperdagangkan di kisaran US$ 82.000.